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Question:
What is the relative strength of the effect of seed dispersal and seedling establishment on seedling recruitment?
Why do we care?
The hundreds of diversity-maintaining mechanisms that have been proposed fall into two broad categories: niche-differentiation and neutrality. Neutrality suggests that plants are ecologically equivalent and that interactions among all individuals are similar. It asserts that, for example, all species have similar tolerances for cold. Niche-differentiation holds that interactions among individuals and between individuals and the environment are intense and species-specific. For example, strong competitive hierarchies are consistent with niche-differentiation. Neutrality enters into seedling recruitment primarily through seed dispersal. Seed dispersal is a Poisson stochastic process, meaning that the neighbors of an establishing seedling are typically heterospecific and unpredictable. Additionally, limited dispersal restricts the frequency of interaction of competitive superiors and inferiors, allowing inferiors to win by default. Niche-differentiation occurs primarily during seedling establishment, as seedlings must survive various ecological filters, such as a dry-season drought, and deep shade.
A determination of the relative strength of seed dispersal and seedling establishment will allow us to estimate the importance of neutrality and niche-differentiation in structuring the seedling community.
Approach:
A hierarchical Bayesian model will incorporate data on seed arrival patterns, and the effects of mammals, resource availability, intra-cohort competition, and biotic neighborhood effects on seedling establishment.
Results:
I wish I knew.
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